AIE - Airdrop Integrity | Private Institutional Airdrop Analysis

Hello.

Blockchain systems promise transparent rules, verifiable outcomes, and accountable value movement. In practice, a distribution can still be distorted by coordinated wallet structures, shared funding, hidden collection routes, artificial participation, and weak evidence boundaries.

AIE β€” Airdrop Integrity is a private institutional system for reconstructing wallet relationships and reviewing allocation evidence before an airdrop, points conversion, eligibility decision, or token distribution is finalized.

It is designed to recover structure from fragmented on-chain activity without converting every unusual pattern into an accusation.


Why This Is Relevant to Arbitrum and Orbit

The 2023 ARB airdrop is not the only distribution-integrity decision in the Arbitrum ecosystem.

Arbitrum and Orbit projects continue to operate:

  • incentive and points programs;
  • eligibility and allowlist processes;
  • ecosystem and grant distributions;
  • referral campaigns;
  • pre-TGE population reviews;
  • token allocations;
  • post-campaign integrity investigations.

This thread also contains a completed Arbitrum-native controlled reconstruction using public Arbitrum data. The full frozen campaign-level and wallet-level results are published directly below this opening post.


What AIE Does

AIE provides a complete workflow for:

  • reconstructing wallet relationships and coordinated structures;
  • identifying common funding, collection, and routing patterns;
  • separating hidden coordination from shared services and legitimate common behavior;
  • preserving the evidence path behind every cluster-level result;
  • reviewing individual wallets inside discovered structures;
  • distinguishing supported findings from unresolved and insufficient-evidence cases;
  • comparing results against approved historical outcomes;
  • simulating allocation consequences before execution;
  • generating local reports, hashes, checkpoints, and review records.

The analytical result, the supporting evidence, and the final operator or governance decision remain separate layers.

AIE does not convert structural similarity into an automatic finding of ownership, culpability, or abuse.


Private, Buyer-Controlled Operation

Each standard deployment is designed for:

  • one organization;
  • one trusted operator;
  • one licensed Windows workstation;
  • unlimited local runs during the valid license period;
  • a fixed three-calendar-month license term;
  • buyer-controlled datasets, graphs, reports, and evidence records;
  • readable static results after license expiry.

The operator works through a local browser interface. Package verification, analysis, graph construction, simulation, manual review, and reporting remain inside the buyer-controlled environment.

The analytical core does not require:

  • RPC access;
  • external APIs;
  • cloud upload;
  • telemetry;
  • outbound licensing calls.

Upstream data acquisition may be performed online or offline under the buyer’s control. The data-preparation layer converts accepted exports into a deterministic, signed, and hash-addressed package. The Offline Engine accepts only packages that pass identity, schema, checksum, signature, and provenance gates.

buyer-controlled acquisition
β†’ verified local package
β†’ offline analytical engine
β†’ local evidence and reports

External data may enter the workflow. The analytical decision layer does not leave the buyer’s control.


Campaign-Level and Wallet-Level Review

AIE begins at the distribution level.

It identifies coordinated structures across the declared campaign population and shows where deeper examination is justified.

Selected addresses may then be examined separately through AIE β€” Wallet Risk Analysis for:

  • transaction paths;
  • exposure;
  • counterparties;
  • connected activity;
  • funding and collection routes;
  • mixer or hidden-flow interaction;
  • wallet-specific evidence boundaries.
campaign-wide structural detection
β†’ frozen wallet selection
β†’ separate wallet-level examination

This creates a controlled path from campaign-level structure to the evidence available for an individual wallet without collapsing the two analytical questions into one score.


Managed Private Analysis

Organizations may request a bounded private review without purchasing or receiving the software.

Available work includes:

  • airdrop integrity review;
  • wallet risk analysis;
  • transaction-path reconstruction;
  • mixer and hidden-flow examination;
  • wallet incident reconstruction;
  • counterparty review;
  • independent review of an existing analytical conclusion.

The client and reviewer agree in advance on:

  • scope;
  • evidence boundary;
  • accepted input package;
  • confidentiality;
  • deliverables;
  • timing;
  • fee.

The analysis is performed privately, and the client receives a structured result with supporting evidence and explicit limitations.

Requests may be sent by direct message.


Three Public Verification Cases

AIE will accept three technically suitable public verification cases nominated through this forum.

Suitable cases may include:

  • a completed historical airdrop;
  • a public incentive or points campaign;
  • a publication-authorized controlled dataset;
  • another frozen wallet population with a defined comparison surface.

For each accepted case:

  1. the scope and comparison point are fixed before analysis;
  2. the submitted dataset is frozen;
  3. the analytical output is frozen before comparison;
  4. supported, unresolved, contradicted, and untestable claims are separated;
  5. the result and permitted supporting evidence are published in this thread.

The cases will come from the forum rather than from an internally selected success list.


Limited Institutional Release

The first institutional allocation will contain 11 individually numbered deployments.

Each deployment is intended for one organization, one trusted operator, and one licensed workstation.

Pricing is not published. Deployment scope and institutional terms are discussed privately.


Completed Arbitrum-Native Verification Case

The thread now contains a completed two-stage Arbitrum case based on a frozen, externally supplied issue population.

Case Classification

EXTERNALLY_SEEDED_POST_SNAPSHOT_CONTROLLED_RECONSTRUCTION

The externally supplied allegation was not treated as official Arbitrum ground truth.

No allegation labels, expected clusters, known-Sybil labels, or post-hoc target values were injected into AIE.

Frozen Source Plane

  • 1,290 / 1,290 source-manifest entries verified;
  • 0 hash mismatches;
  • 12,804 normalized direct relationships;
  • 1,658 total analyzed addresses;
  • 1,656 / 1,656 seed wallets directly linked to the first disclosed central address;
  • 1,608 / 1,656 directly linked to the second disclosed central address;
  • 1,608 / 1,656 directly linked to both;
  • 48 without a direct second-address relationship in the declared plane.

The densest inclusive six-hour window contained:

  • 1,653 unique first-reached seed wallets;
  • 2,407 direct relationship rows.

The concentrated post-snapshot distribution pattern was supported. Some stronger external numerical claims did not reproduce exactly in the complete declared evidence plane.

Frozen AIE Result

AIE processed the complete frozen plane with:

  • 0 imported labels;
  • 0 expected clusters;
  • unchanged accepted defaults;
  • zero network access during analysis.

The native result produced:

  • 157 reviewable graph structures;
  • 803 seed wallets assigned to native structures;
  • 853 seed wallets unresolved or not natively clustered;
  • 13,029 candidate edges;
  • 2,244 accepted edges;
  • 10,785 rejected edges;
  • 647 cluster-evidence records;
  • 467 group-evidence records.

No wallet reached the configured native high-risk threshold.

AIE did not convert the central-address pattern into an automatic exclusion list.

Separate Wallet-Level Review

A deterministic ten-wallet panel was frozen only after the AIE output had been frozen.

A separate Arbitrum-compatible ingestion candidate was accepted with:

  • 154 / 154 tests passed;
  • 10 / 10 analytical-core files byte-identical;
  • 0 core additions;
  • 0 core removals;
  • 0 core mismatches;
  • 0 outbound network attempts.

Across the exact frozen panel:

  • 10 / 10 wallets contained post-snapshot relationship evidence;
  • 0 / 10 contained a pre-snapshot relationship in the exact-panel subset;
  • 8 / 8 non-central seed wallets were directly linked to both disclosed central addresses;
  • 47 unique native transactions were reconstructed;
  • 3 token-transfer observations were retained as supplemental evidence;
  • 0 wallet-risk scores were emitted;
  • 0 automatic-exclusion recommendations were produced.

The absence of a risk score was an evidence-boundary result, not an absence of analysis. Missing receipts, traces, unrelated counterparties, ownership evidence, and complete independent wallet histories were not converted into synthetic confidence.

Combined Conclusion

The frozen result supports:

  • a strong post-snapshot operational-coordination or coordinated-execution structure;
  • reproducible central-address relationships;
  • deterministic separation between structured and unresolved wallets;
  • address-level provenance for the wallet-stage evidence;
  • a review path that does not depend on accepting a hidden score.

It does not, by itself, establish:

  • ownership or common control;
  • authorization or compromise;
  • operator identity;
  • culpability;
  • complete wallet histories;
  • pre-snapshot eligibility-generating control;
  • a basis for automatic exclusion.

The complete Part I and Part II records, chronology, limitations, and evidence hashes are published in the replies below this opening post.


Completed Blind Evidence Case β€” Hop Protocol

A completed blind analysis was performed on the public Hop topology corpus.

The objective was to determine how much published structure could be recovered from a neutral relationship plane before the official baseline was authorized or opened.

Corpus

  • 43,058 official-universe addresses;
  • 6,057,473 retained public relationship rows;
  • 183 source files;
  • Ethereum, Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon, and Gnosis represented.

Both analytical outputs were hashed, frozen, and receipted before the official baseline was opened.

Full Hop Protocol result

Run A β€” Comparator-Aligned Neutral Topology

  • 2,249 detected structures;
  • 12,919 detected addresses;
  • 5,819 / 14,195 official Hop exclusions recovered;
  • 40.993308% official-exclusion recall;
  • 1,514.500 seconds runtime;
  • 12 / 610 official groups with 100% member recall;
  • 7 exact full member-set recoveries.

Across all 610 official groups:

  • 100% member recall: 12
  • 90% to below 100%: 5
  • 75% to below 90%: 18
  • 50% to below 75%: 94
  • below 50%: 341
  • missed: 140

The result was substantial but partial. It recovered known structure from a reduced topology plane without presenting that reduced plane as the full analytical depth of AIE.

Run B β€” Raw-Topology Ablation

Run B is classified as:

VALID_RAW_TOPOLOGY_ABLATION_ONLY

It imported the same 43,058 addresses and 6,057,473 directed relationships, but deliberately removed:

  • transaction identity;
  • real time;
  • amount;
  • asset;
  • method;
  • verified contract role;
  • trace facts.

Run B recovered:

  • 0 / 14,195 official exclusions;
  • 1 three-address structure.

It is an ablation result, not a representation of AIE’s complete native capability.

The contrast between Run A and Run B shows where visible graph topology ends and where richer evidence families begin to matter.

Additional Structures

An additional structure was defined as a deduplicated detected structure with zero member overlap with every official Hop group used in the published baseline.

Under that frozen definition:

  • independently confirmed: 0
  • topology-validated under preregistered criteria: 421
  • unresolved: 579
  • insufficient evidence: 2
  • contradicted: 0

Separately, 1,248 Run A structures overlapped at least one official group and were excluded from the additional-structure count.

Topology-validated structures are not described as confirmed Sybil groups, confirmed abuse, or proof of common control.

Independent Acceptance

Two independent reviews recomputed:

  • the accepted 80 / 80 AIE core identity;
  • the blind chronology;
  • the complete address-level metrics;
  • all 610 group-recovery tiers;
  • the Run B ablation classification;
  • the additional-structure population rule.

They reported zero material metric mismatches.

No AIE rerun, threshold tuning, input change, baseline rewrite, or external-data substitution occurred during acceptance and reconciliation.

Evidence Availability and Reproducibility

The complete frozen evidence package, manifests, receipts, and independent review materials are available for direct examination on request.

No evidence file is attached to this forum post.

The result can be recomputed from:

  • frozen input hashes;
  • output manifests;
  • run receipts;
  • the official Hop baseline;
  • published evaluation definitions;
  • the frozen additional-structure rule.

Decision Boundary

A visible blockchain can still contain an invisible structure.

AIE is designed to recover that structure, preserve the evidence behind it, and return analytical order to decisions that should remain clean, fair, and verifiable.

The analytical system supplies reviewable evidence.

The organization or DAO retains policy, exclusion, appeal, review, and final decision authority.


AIE β€” Integrity Research
Private Web3 integrity systems for clean distributions, fair participation, and verifiable on-chain decisions.

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Impressive work on the Hop case and the focus on frozen evidence and reproducibility. At the same time, for a public DAO like Arbitrum, relying on a private, scarce integrity tool raises questions around method transparency, access asymmetry, and clear appeal / review standards if its outputs inform exclusion decisions.

The relevant distinction is not β€œpublic tool versus private tool.” It is whether the decision surface remains inspectable, reproducible and contestable.

A public model can still produce an opaque exclusion. A proprietary analytical engine can still expose a fully reviewable evidentiary surface.

AIE separates three layers that should never be collapsed into one:

  1. the protected analytical kernel;
  2. the reviewable evidence produced by that kernel;
  3. the governance authority that decides policy, exclusion and appeal.

The analytical kernel may remain private. The decision-relevant evidence may not.

Any material conclusion produced by AIE must be traceable to frozen inputs, frozen outputs, address-level relationship paths, provenance, alternative explanations, false-positive controls and an explicit statement of what remains unresolved. A DAO is therefore not asked to trust a hidden score. It is given a structured evidentiary record that can be reviewed independently and challenged at the level of the underlying facts.

The scarcity of the software concerns deployment, not review rights. A participant does not need access to the engine in order to understand the evidence used in a decision, contest an incorrect relationship, introduce contrary evidence or request a second review. Appeal standards remain a governance decision and should be defined before any exclusion policy is applied.

I’m now formalizing this as Public Verification Case 1/3 through an Arbitrum-native controlled reconstruction using two separate analytical systems.

AIE - Airdrop Integrity will reconstruct the campaign-level structure beneath the visible chain. Its output will then be frozen before a wallet panel is selected. That frozen panel will be examined separately through AIE - Wallet Risk Analysis.

The chronology is therefore:

frozen public inputs β†’ campaign-level reconstruction β†’ frozen structural output β†’ frozen wallet panel β†’ wallet-level examination β†’ frozen wallet output β†’ comparison and review

This sequence is designed precisely to prevent methodological leakage, retrospective tuning and the use of post-hoc evidence to justify an earlier result.

Once both outputs are frozen, we will publish the evidentiary boundaries, chronology, comparison and review surface here.

The objective is not to replace public governance with a private instrument. It is to reveal, with greater depth and precision, the underlying structure that public governance is already responsible for judging.

Public Verification Case 1/3 β€” Frozen Structural Result

The campaign-level stage of the Arbitrum-controlled reconstruction is complete and frozen.

Case Classification

EXTERNALLY_SEEDED_POST_SNAPSHOT_CONTROLLED_RECONSTRUCTION

The public issue population was known in advance and was treated as an external allegation, not as official Arbitrum ground truth.

No allegation labels, known-Sybil labels, expected clusters, or post-hoc target values were injected into AIE.


Frozen Evidentiary Plane

The source layer consists of the complete paginated Blockscout address histories of the two disclosed central addresses, intersected with the frozen 1,656-address seed population.

Source Verification

  • 1,290 / 1,290 manifest entries verified
  • 0 hash mismatches
  • 12,804 normalized direct relationships
  • 5 pre-snapshot relationships
  • 12,799 post-snapshot relationships

The independently recomputed relationship surface shows:

  • 1,656 / 1,656 seed wallets directly linked to the first central address
  • 1,608 / 1,656 directly linked to the second central address
  • 1,608 / 1,656 directly linked to both
  • 48 without a direct second-address relationship in this declared evidence plane

The first direct reaches from the first central address to the complete 1,656-wallet population span 22,691 seconds β€” 6 hours, 18 minutes, 11 seconds.

The densest inclusive six-hour window contains:

  • 1,653 unique first-reached seed wallets
  • 2,407 direct relationship rows

Accordingly, the concentrated distribution pattern is supported, but the exact public statements of 2,417 transactions inside six hours and a universal second-address relationship do not reproduce in the complete declared plane.


Frozen AIE Result

AIE β€” Airdrop Integrity processed:

  • 12,804 events
  • 1,658 addresses
  • 0 imported labels
  • 0 expected clusters
  • unchanged accepted defaults
  • zero network access during analysis

The frozen native output produced:

  • 157 graph structures
  • 803 seed wallets assigned to native structures
  • 853 seed wallets unresolved or not natively clustered
  • 13,029 candidate edges
  • 2,244 accepted edges
  • 10,785 rejected edges
  • 647 cluster-evidence records
  • 467 group-evidence records

The native output reconstructed:

  • a common-funder relationship family spanning all 1,656 seed wallets through the first central address;
  • a common-sink relationship family spanning 1,608 seed wallets through the second central address.

No wallet reached the configured native high-risk threshold. All native wallet outcomes remained within Low or Moderate levels.

AIE therefore did not convert the visible central-address pattern into an automatic exclusion list.

It preserved:

  • structure membership;
  • rejected relationships;
  • unresolved wallets;
  • rarity and size penalties;
  • the distinction between evidence and final judgment.

What the Evidence Establishes

The frozen result supports a strong post-snapshot operational-coordination or coordinated-execution interpretation.

It does not, by itself, establish:

  • who controlled the wallets;
  • whether any wallet was compromised;
  • whether a sweeper, poisoning event, or delegated operator was involved;
  • whether the same control existed during pre-snapshot eligibility-generating activity;
  • eligibility counts or ARB allocation totals;
  • culpability.

The claim matrix therefore resolves as:

  • 2 independently supported
  • 2 partially supported
  • 2 contradicted
  • 3 not testable from this evidence plane
  • 1 unresolved

Native structure membership is evidence for review, not a final culpability finding.

Native non-membership is not exculpatory.

No automatic exclusion is recommended.


Frozen Chronology

The sequence was fixed as:

source verification β†’ independent fact recomputation β†’ deterministic input freeze β†’ AIE execution β†’ complete output freeze β†’ deterministic wallet-panel selection β†’ panel freeze β†’ comparison

The AIE output was frozen before either panel selection or comparison.

Evidence Hashes

Frozen AIE output tree SHA-256

1c0de5bced4904d066c37055c9cddaae0d1ed14e5d5d4e6f3650a4234927acc4

Frozen ten-wallet panel SHA-256

df74a27d8e9c0393455a727018da76d56309705cab5e2807b43719a489696096

The panel contains the two disclosed central addresses together with eight wallets selected deterministically from frozen native fields:

  • strongest included members;
  • weakest included members;
  • strongest unresolved members;
  • strongest internal-divergence cases.

No additional wallet history was inspected before that panel was frozen.


Decision Surface

This frozen case makes the review boundary concrete.

The protected analytical kernel does not replace the evidentiary surface.

The reviewable layer contains:

  • frozen source records;
  • a frozen analytical output;
  • accepted and rejected relationships;
  • address-level evidence paths;
  • unresolved populations;
  • provenance;
  • explicit scope boundaries;
  • deterministic panel selection;
  • reproducible hashes.

The DAO retains policy, exclusion, appeal, review, and final decision authority.

The wallet-level phase of Public Verification Case 1/3 will follow against the already frozen ten-wallet panel.

Public Verification Case 1/3 β€” Part II: Frozen Wallet-Level Review

The wallet-level stage is complete.

The ten-wallet panel was fixed only after the AIE β€” Airdrop Integrity output had been frozen.

No wallet was added, removed, replaced, or reordered after deeper examination began.

Case Classification

EXTERNALLY_SEEDED_POST_SNAPSHOT_CONTROLLED_RECONSTRUCTION

Wallet-Stage Evidence Classification

FROZEN_LIMITED_CENTRAL_RELATIONSHIP_WALLET_REVIEW

This distinction is essential.

The wallet stage uses the complete frozen central-address relationship plane captured for this case. It does not claim complete independent histories for the eight non-central panel wallets.


Accepted Wallet-Analysis Boundary

A separate Arbitrum-compatible ingestion candidate was created without modifying the accepted analytical core.

Acceptance Result

  • 154 / 154 tests passed
  • 10 / 10 analytical/core files remained byte-identical
  • 0 core additions
  • 0 core removals
  • 0 core mismatches
  • 0 outbound network attempts
  • original accepted product unchanged

The ten-wallet input was built twice from clean state and was byte-identical.

WRA input tree SHA-256

b96a09f238a7bb0be9add8bc2f477526a90f2569dfa760593d33bb8e7d468870


Frozen Wallet-Level Result

The panel contains:

  • the two disclosed central addresses;
  • two strongest native structure members;
  • two weakest included structure members;
  • two strongest unresolved members;
  • two strongest internal-divergence cases.

Across the exact frozen panel:

  • 10 / 10 wallets contain post-snapshot relationship evidence
  • 0 / 10 contain a pre-snapshot relationship in the exact-panel subset
  • 8 / 8 non-central seed wallets are directly linked to both disclosed central addresses
  • 47 unique native transactions were reconstructed
  • 3 token-transfer observations were retained as supplemental evidence
  • 20 plane-specific runs reproduced deterministically
  • 0 WRA risk scores were emitted
  • 0 automatic-exclusion recommendations were produced

Complete WRA output tree SHA-256

b196ff188bfea7113f1c020782f4e11f4772e4f01ffcd0bea962cae407c4e8ce

The absence of a wallet-level risk score is not an absence of analysis. It is a boundary result.

The accepted product did not convert unavailable receipts, traces, raw log topics, unrelated counterparties, ownership evidence, or complete wallet histories into synthetic confidence.

Missing evidence remained missing.

The system preserved the observed relationship envelopes and refused to manufacture a stronger conclusion than the frozen plane could support.


Two Systems, Two Different Questions

AIE β€” Airdrop Integrity

AIE β€” Airdrop Integrity evaluated the campaign-level relationship structure and produced:

  • 157 reviewable structures
  • 803 structured members
  • 6 panel wallets included in native structures
  • 4 panel wallets unresolved or not natively clustered

It answers:

What structure exists across the campaign-level relationship plane?

AIE β€” Wallet Risk Analysis

AIE β€” Wallet Risk Analysis then examined the exact frozen panel at address level.

It reconstructed the native transaction envelopes available inside the declared evidence plane and preserved, for every material record:

  • wallet identity;
  • evidence plane;
  • direction;
  • value;
  • timing;
  • source page;
  • source-page SHA-256;
  • source item index;
  • exercised evidence classes;
  • unavailable evidence classes.

It answers:

What address-level evidence is actually available for the frozen wallets, and where does that evidence stop?

Neither system is permitted to transform a limited evidence plane into an ownership, culpability, or automatic-exclusion verdict.


What the Combined Result Supports

The combined frozen result supports:

  • a strong post-snapshot operational-coordination or coordinated-execution structure;
  • direct reproducible relationships between all eight selected seed wallets and both disclosed central addresses;
  • deterministic separation between structured and unresolved wallets;
  • address-level provenance for every wallet-stage relationship used;
  • a review path that does not depend on accepting a hidden score.

What It Does Not Establish

This case does not, by itself, establish:

  • complete independent wallet histories;
  • all counterparties;
  • ownership or common control;
  • authorization or compromise;
  • operator identity;
  • culpability;
  • pre-snapshot eligibility-generating control;
  • the wider address populations or allocation totals asserted in the external issue;
  • a basis for automatic exclusion.

The external issue remains an externally supplied claim set, not official Arbitrum ground truth.

The frozen claim matrix resolves as:

  • 2 independently supported
  • 2 partially supported
  • 1 unresolved
  • 2 contradicted
  • 3 not testable from the declared evidence plane

Review, Contestability, and Appeal

The decision surface is now concrete.

A reviewer can:

  • trace every wallet-stage relationship to a frozen source page;
  • verify its SHA-256 and item index;
  • separate pre-snapshot from post-snapshot evidence;
  • identify which evidence classes were exercised;
  • identify which evidence classes were unavailable;
  • challenge an incorrect relationship;
  • introduce contrary evidence or an alternative explanation;
  • request re-evaluation without changing the frozen record.

This is the practical distinction between a protected analytical kernel and an opaque decision.

The kernel remains private.

The evidence used in a decision remains inspectable, reproducible, and contestable.


Frozen Chronology

previous-stage verification β†’ local evidence recomputation β†’ isolated compatibility candidate β†’ compatibility acceptance β†’ wallet-input freeze β†’ WRA execution β†’ complete WRA-output freeze β†’ independent output acceptance β†’ dual-system comparison

Comparison began only after the Wallet Risk Analysis output had been frozen and independently accepted.


Evidence Hashes

Source manifest

c69a209d6b0a48f6acc7865c49c2ab03fe0e9bc775d6bc2ea898379e3e6bcc95

Airdrop Integrity output

1c0de5bced4904d066c37055c9cddaae0d1ed14e5d5d4e6f3650a4234927acc4

Frozen wallet panel

df74a27d8e9c0393455a727018da76d56309705cab5e2807b43719a489696096

Wallet Risk Analysis input

b96a09f238a7bb0be9add8bc2f477526a90f2569dfa760593d33bb8e7d468870

Wallet Risk Analysis output

b196ff188bfea7113f1c020782f4e11f4772e4f01ffcd0bea962cae407c4e8ce


AIE supplies reviewable evidence.

The DAO retains policy, exclusion, appeal, review, and final decision authority.

Public Verification Case 1/3 is now complete at both campaign-structure and frozen wallet-review levels.

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