Arbitrum Yield & Risk Intelligence Layer by TID Research

DAO Programs & Initiatives Firestarters
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Firestarter Grant Final Report: Yield & Risk Intelligence Layer by TID Research

1. Executive Summary

TiD Research has completed the deliverables for the Arbitrum Yield & Risk Intelligence Layer grant. We proposed and built a data-driven dashboard and risk framework, starting with a pilot asset: thBILL, and also going above beyond by also delivering syrupusdc reports and dashboard.

Our objective was to help bridge the information gap for retail and institutional investors by providing transparent yield and risk data. While the fast-paced nature of the DeFi ecosystem presented unexpected challenges that impacted our target metrics, we were able to deliver the core thBILL MVP and expand the infrastructure to support additional assets popular on Arbitrum, such as syrupUSDC and syrupUSDT. We view this as a solid foundation and remain committed to maintaining and improving this analytical tool for the Arbitrum ecosystem.

2. Deliverables & Milestone Tracking

Our primary deliverables have been launched, and we used the underlying architecture to add two additional dashboards beyond the initial scope.

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  • Expanded Deliverables: syrupUSDC & syrupUSDT Risk Reports & Dashboards

    • Status: Completed.

    • Overview: To test the scalability of our initial thBILL MVP, we adapted our data architecture to build and deploy equivalent reports and tracking dashboards for syrupUSDC and syrupUSDT.

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3. KPI Performance & Contextual Analysis

Following the launch of the core dashboard and report, we tracked user interaction and asset metrics over a 30-day period. We set ambitious targets for this pilot, and while we fell short of our numerical goals, the tracking period provided valuable insights into market dynamics and user behavior.

A. Institutional Integration & Ecosystem Context (KPI 3)

  • Lead Generation: We aimed to capture 50+ institutional leads and concluded the period with 3 unique form submissions . While the volume was significantly lower than anticipated, we are encouraged that the leads we did capture represent genuine, high-intent interest in deep-dive analytics.

  • TVL Context & Protocol Pivot: We initially targeted a 10% increase in thBILL TVL; this metric remained flat during the 30-day window because our dashboard and reports attracted retail users who cannot mint or redeem - however the retail demand was shown by the peg getting tighter after our reports and dashboard were published on the 26th.

    • Another major factor was a strategic pivot by the underlying protocol (Theo). During this period, Theo launched thGOLD and thUSD, transitioning thBILL from a primary user-facing asset into a reserve asset backing thUSD. As a result, TVL growth for thBILL paused. However, this shift highlighted a different use case for our dashboard: serving as a tool to monitor the risk of collateral backing the broader Theo ecosystem.

B. Retail Engagement & On-Chain Action (KPI 4)

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  • Session Volume: The platform saw 237 total visits (sessions) and 222 unique visitors, generating 595 page views (Target: 1,500+ sessions). We did not meet our traffic targets, partly due to the aforementioned shift in thBILL’s marketing focus. However, we observed steady engagement from those who did visit, with users averaging 2.51 pages per visit. Traffic was distributed across our core /reports/thbill/ (83 visitors) and our expanded /reports/syrupusdc/ pages (52 visitors).

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  • Besides the website traffic, our dashboards were hosted on a different domain (todayindefi.github.io - exit traffic here helps account for additional missing traffic to dashboards not captured by the previous metrics from plausible)

  • Conversion / CTR: We observed a 7.7% Conversion Rate (CR) on outbound link clicks directly into DeFi protocols. While slightly below our 10% target, it provides a very reasonable baseline, suggesting that users are willing to take actionable steps when provided with consolidated risk data.

4. Strategic Alignment & Future Outlook

As noted in the initial grant evaluation, this project falls into the ‘Open Track’, with its value tied to the ongoing maintenance and utility of the dashboard. We are grateful for the support of the Arbitrum grant program, which allowed us to build this initial infrastructure.

The execution of this grant provided a valuable learning experience. The dashboard architecture was built, retail and institutional interest was gained, and the subsequent launch of the syrupUSDC and syrupUSDT dashboards demonstrates that the template is adaptable. Moving forward, TiD Research will continue to refine this framework and support other DeFi assets on Arbitrum, working to build tools that foster investor confidence.

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OpCo Update June 2026