This is a wonderful bottom-up project to get projects funded. When coming across this initiative I was wondering if there are patterns predicting who winners and voter turnout. Part of the work is inspired by the questions raised in DataGrants: Permissionless Suggestion Box Kick-Off & Status.
I’ve looked at voter turnout using the number of wallets that voted (53 in round 1, 52 in subsequent rounds) and the number of votes that were casted (400 per voter). Finding the relevant information in the forum took some time. Hopefully I didn’t miss anything 
Dashboard: https://dune.com/katerinabc/arbitrums-minigrants
Quick Insights:
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Fewer proposals are posted
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Stable voter turnout, but decreasing since round 4
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Potential ecosystem participation effect with voters casting fewer votes to new-comers
Limitations
I’ve not run any statistical tests. While one of the graph suggest that being new to the ecosystem means you are less likely to win, this isn’t proven with statistical tests.
Next step
- The names of the rounds are currently hard-coded. If there will be future Jokeraces, this can be removed to remain relevant in the future.
- Ecosystem participation could be define differently. Would love to get input on that one.
- Include data about comments on proposal. Commenting takes effort, hence it’s a great signal of interests in the proposal or the round.